1/30/2015

The way it is: the US, the European Union, and derp... Hong Kong under China

So it's the start of the year; January is a month when the governments and business corporations review how the past year has fared and try to gauge what is in stock for the coming year. 

For big businesses, Apple seems to have been a big winner recording a handsome amount of quarterly profit (the greatest there ever is so they say) up to December with the other "Big Fours"- Google, Amazon, and Facebook- doing just well along-side. Apple is going big (quite literally with its out-of-norm gigantic iPhone 6 Plus) and up- just as its home-base country. The US economy is looking up or has turned the page (quoting the words of Obama). 

 Let's have a look at the bigger picture of the state of the United States; It has seen consistent positive growths, ever diminishing budget deficits, finally pulled back the last combat force from Afghanistan though whether it actually has happened is debatable and quickly found themselves stepping into a new conflict in the Middle East. But the US economy has surely picked up from the slumber and grim outlook during the years of recession started in 2008, whilst Obama has scored preliminary success in his push for implementation of the Affordable Care Act, or more commonly known as the Obamacare. This all should have made it easier for the POTUS to deliver his State of the Union address on the third Tuesday of the month. It was, however, the least watched address since the year 2000: drawing only a little more than 30 million audiences (consider the population of the US standing at 316 million) either streaming or watching it from cable TV. 

Still, the State of the Union address is something to look forward to. And mimicking entertainment videos, they actually made a teaser for the address:


Talking about all the positives and the sense of optimism do give you something to cheer for, although in the chamber it still is mostly the Democracts cheering for the president and the Republicans with a grumpy face only occasionally giving standing ovation when the POTUS talked about patriotic stuff which everybody feels obliged to feel positive and give salutes.



On a side note, the address was more like a celebration party than a pronouncement of the set of policies the president is trying to lay out. People are clapping, cheering, giving standing ovation, and the president taking credits for the most trivial stuff at times stretchy- you'd wonder if all politicians are a bit deluded. The lack of champagne is what makes it not a party. But I shouldn't be complaining about this, because I've seen worse here at home. 


Trying to strike a note of similar positivity, Hong Kong's top officials do not have the same ground to be so optimistic. If the US senators and the president were deluded, C.Y. Leung and his underlings were knowingly lying to the public. 

The European Union was troubled, not least by its neighbour motivated almost fanatically by the fickle leader Mr Vladimir Putin. Deflationary pressure across the Euro-zone has piled on so much pressure that Mario Draghi (the president of the European Central Bank) saw no other options but to succumb to the enticing quantitative easing in the footstep of America, Britain and Japan. The possible outcome of Greek default and leaving the Euro-zone (or so-called Grexit) brought to the surface by the unsettling though somewhat expected victory in the parliamentary election by the radical left party Syriza does not only encourage similar movements in Spain (propelled by Podemos, another anti-austerity party of similar style to its Greek counterparty) and Italy, but also threaten the very fabric of the Euro-zone and might just tear it apart. 

Contrary to all these messes, our local clever, talented, sometimes exploiting tycoon Li Ka-shing (or better known as "superman" locally), according to Bloomberg, boldly made a wager asserting that he saw the future in Europe (implying: not Hong Kong). He followed through with his actions; the latest news of him negotiating to buy O2 possibly merges it with Three he already owns thus reducing the UK telecom industry to "Big Three"- O2 & Three, Vodafone and EE- is just one of the many acquisitions he has already made. 

So what about Hong Kong? China's economy is decelerating, though they insist it is not a "hard landing". And China's grip on Hong Kong's way of life is ever tighter when the sovereignty is launching the hardest campaign against the ubiquitous graft and corruption across the country. This transition period is tough for Hong Kong, so tough indeed that many Hongkongese become disillusioned and desperately trying to cope. These days, people learn to come to terms with things however ridiculous they are (yes, I'm partly referring to the current incidents of ATV); in fact, people are starting to lie to themselves such that they do not have to live in the unbearable reality which they know is unhealthy in the long run. It's quite hard to stay all positive and optimistic in Hong Kong because it's bad, it's really bad. So when I scoff at the naivete displayed by the US congress and the fuss European countries got themselves into, I stop to remember where I am and I can't laugh no more. Because I've seen worse.    

11/10/2014

英國權力下放;香港中央集權

聯合王國(通稱英國)繼蘇格蘭於9月18日一場逾四百二十萬蘇格蘭人參與的單議題(獨立)公投表態後,激發了一連串關於政治生態轉變、權力再分配的議論,而且是現在進行式。英國首相金馬倫 (David Cameron)不知是出於黨內後座議員 (backbenchers)的慫恿抑或來年國會選舉數票的策略考慮,公投翌日早早 7 時現於唐寧街10號總結公投之餘,連帶提出了對威爾斯、北愛爾蘭以及-當然少不得-英格蘭(更多的)權力下放 (devolution)。

英格蘭也權力下放

也許意料之外,英格蘭「國」境之內,對權力下放的推演再走一步:既然討論權力下放至聯合王國內的各「國」,何不湊個熱鬧,順帶討論一下英格蘭各區各郡的權力再分配?這個著實是對地區主義 (localism) 再探討的好時機。議論最主要圍繞幾個面向-當地人最清楚當地的發展需要、不少區、郡圴有獨立的地方特色而且不希望被同化、英國政客始終太多區域議會無助地區發展、英格蘭(甚至英國)太過以倫敦為中心(更有人用倫敦究竟是推動英國的發動機抑或窒殺其他地區的癌細胞作比喻)。這幾個面向有的互相矛盾,有的是積壓已久的 elephant in the room;這次正好讓持不同意見的人士和盤托出。

要認識現代英國的地區主義,或者應該先從倫敦這個國際大都會著手。當然倫敦可以再細分大倫敦 (Greater London)、內倫敦(Inner London)、甚至倫敦市(City of London),在此不贅。原來單單倫敦的經濟貢獻 (以GDP計)已經是全英的四分之一 (亦相等於瑞典的 GDP),人口逾一千三百萬-比威爾斯、蘇格蘭的人口總和要多。倫敦絕對是英國的大玩家,其他地區與其相比,真的是「蚊同牛比」。倫敦幾近等於英國-不少人把它們聯想為同義詞。但是,這並不使英國國民絕對認同其他地區應該配合國策以倫敦為中心,壯大國家。先不要論繼續重心發展倫敦的回報遞減,而其他地區或有更大的發展空間;不同地區的不列顛人在愛國主義潮退卻後,重拾地區歸屬感,而且漸覺「中央」根本不能掌握地區居民的需要以及迫切的問題 (out of touch),從而希望由熟悉地區的人管治該地區-本土人治本土;但是同時亦不認同由更多的政黨代表把持議會,因為認為他們不但官僚主義低效率,而且只會照顧商家利益。

香港卻殊途

這一切是否似曾相識?香港人何嘗不是渴求「港人治港」,而且拒絕地區政府透過官僚制度向資本財團過分傾斜?只不過,當英國研究如何權力下放以及下放至怎樣的程度,香港卻由最高權力下放 (也許可作蘇格蘭公投期間常提到的 Devo-Max 的藍圖)被一步步收窄,權歸中央。中共領導人在近來不斷強調香港只是被賦予「剩餘權力」-因為是被賦予,所以暗示了可以被收回;因為是「剩餘」,所以暗示了可以「無剩餘」。英國地區跟香港面對的困境是多麼的相似,但是國家/政府處理的態度是多麼的懸殊。我們不必有英國(甚至其他西方國家)凡事都比香港優勝的假定,事實上,香港在很多面向都跟西方先進國不遑多讓-但是我們可以做得更好,而且好得多。可是,在領導層方面,香港差太多。英國的,他們會檢視制度的可持續性,循序漸進地在體制內求變;香港的卻只會在慢性衰亡的體制內苟延殘喘,他們把這想像為「循序漸進」的進步簡直是痴人說夢。循序漸進是英國可應付的,而且是應該的,而香港甚至中國更需要的是革命性的改革。但是最需要革命的地方偏偏只有尚未成功的半個革命,歷史的諷刺。

跟香港開的另一個玩笑

當年跟中共談判接管香港的正是戴卓爾夫人 (Margaret Thatcher) 以及她領頭的保守黨,而保守黨最擁戴「大市場、小政府」。中共說要全面接管以及保留國防及外交權,而英方則粗略地訂下「生活方式不變」,以及政府「積極不干預」的香港未來的發展路向。政府「積極不干預」這類意念對於保守黨人士簡直是如魚得水,他們覺得香港可以示範資本主義的極致成功。但是,正因香港政府沒有國防及外交權(亦即沒有政治權),同時對市場積極不干預,剩下來只是輔助國家經濟發展/執行國家政治任務的功能,更會眼巴巴看著市場不平衡發展而產生各種社會不公的現象。香港就是在中、英兩方三腳櫈缺一的協商的歷史糊塗賑下催生出來的英國實驗品兼中國生財工具。



「揸返軚盤」

但是,正如英格蘭各地區的吶喊,亦正如本作者在另一篇文章寫道,英格蘭各地區不是倫敦/英國的附屬區,香港亦不是中國這個巨人過場的一隻跳蚤。一個地區縱使份量再少,但是在該地區的每一個都是活生生的人,都值得尊重。或者是時候像洋文說:get back behind the wheel. 命運自主是實實在在而且可能做到的口號。

話說,倫敦在英格蘭不同地區討論權力下放的時候,提起羡慕香港的自主,嚷著要跟香港這類的國際大都市一樣得到相當的自由。只能說,倫敦,你太抬舉了。大概 grass is greener.

 

11/04/2014

美國一四中期選舉共和黨、奧巴馬學習共處

最終美國共和黨 (GOP) 成功取得參議院過半議席,奧巴馬接下來兩年可謂「有排受」。他今日以後在議會面對的制肘比起香港的 689 可能會更大。不過由於美國確立了基本的民主制度,奧巴馬亦是民選的,他在議會無需面對不合作運動-反正這個總統不合心水,四年後可以選另一個。而且,中期選舉一向對反對黨傾斜,而共和黨在這兩年的表現亦不容放肆否則只會自招票債票償。在政府議會合作、能源、財政撥款、商貿、移民政策上分別有人唱淡有人唱好,而我是看好的。兩邊角力,把兩邊都拉向中間;奧巴馬借共和黨為議會的「執政黨」為由,可一方面演白臉,一方面推行有利國家發展但遭左派強烈反對的計劃。

美國政治之複雜、角力之僵緊,看似跟香港的 689 政權有得比,但是,看深一層,根本兩碼子的事。民主政治的智慧,香港政界識條鐵咩!